Claim Chowder

Apple stock is 50% higher than a year ago and 4 times higher than 5 years ago.

Gruber recalls the forecasts of Apple stock doom over the years.

Thompson chips in as Apple’s chief defence attorney.

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Check out the HTML version here. Code.

Wrongheaded Stock Pundits

This graph does a few things.

It takes the return from each quarter and plots it against the next quarter's return.

Wow, September '83!

Secondly it fits an 'ellipse' against the data.

Lastly, the 'ellipse' is actually more like a circle; which geometrically supports Thompson & Gruber - stock pundits are terrible at forecasting.

Cook, The Second Coming?

The pundits don't get it wrong due to a lack of understanding of Cook, Ive nor the company's business model. Rather the returns are quite random - evenly dispersed in every direction out from the origin.

So random, that it's next to impossible to correctly predict a few quarters in a row. Even a positive or negative prediction is about as likely as a coin toss.

The Apple stock price absorbs all the information available and the market for Apple stock is pretty efficient (more so than Uber fares at least).

The takeaway? Don't speculate on Apple stock (and more importantly remember September '83! Wow).